Published: Tue, April 17, 2018

Analysts cheer normal monsoon forecast by IMD

Analysts cheer normal monsoon forecast by IMD

"We maintain our call for an extended pause from the RBI, which will be on a wait-and-watch mode until there is significant adverse impact from the monsoons", it said in a report.

Having three good monsoons consecutively will certainly help rainfed areas, which constitute 52 per cent of the total farmland, said Ashok Dalwai, CEO of National Rainfed Area Authority.

"The date of onset of the monsoon will be announced in the middle of May", said an IMD official from Western Region. The country had recorded a rainfall of 97 per cent in 2016 and 98 per cent previous year during the season, which runs from June to September. Monsoon will hit the country's mainland in Kerala in last week of May or in the first week of June.

In what could cheer up the distressed farm sector as well as lift the overall economic sentiment, the weather department on Monday said this year's monsoon would be "normal".


Most agri-input stocks saw a sharp rise in second half trading as the market anticipated a positive rain forecast by the IMD.

The moderate La Nina conditions developed in the equatorial Pacific during last year started weakening in the early part of this year and now have turned to weak La Nina conditions. El Nino is a weather phenomenon caused by unusual warming in the Pacific Ocean, resulting in atmospheric changes, potentially leading to poor monsoon. Monsoon rains rains this year will be at 100 percent - with an error margin of +/-4 percent - of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

Ramesh also announced category-wise forecast in terms of probabilities for normal (96% to 104 %), above normal (104% to 110%), excess (more than 110%), below normal (90% to 96%) and deficient (less than 90%) rainfall. Anything between 90-96 per cent of the LPA is considered "below normal". Beyond the monsoon, the government's procurement policy of crops will be key to watch to assess the impact on food inflation. Almost 60 per cent of the country's farms lack irrigation facilities, leaving millions of farmers dependent on the rains. The monsoon also replenishes 81 nationally-monitored water reservoirs critical for drinking, power and irrigation.

India is self-sufficient in crops such as rice and wheat, but a drought would require the country to import foodstuffs.

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