Published: Fri, September 14, 2018

Chance for tropical development in the Gulf up to 70 percent

Chance for tropical development in the Gulf up to 70 percent

"Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system".

Image courtesy of National Weather Service/NOAA/WPC.

According to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 30% chance that Invest 95L forms into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours and a 50% chance of formation within the next 5 days.

Upper-level winds aren't great for development at the moment, but as the system drifts northwestward, it'll gain energy from the warm Gulf waters and upper-level winds should become more conducive for tropical development.

"This is the precursor of something trying to get organized", Kottlowski said in an interview.

Models have pretty consistently had this swirl of moisture moving from the Middle to Lower Texas Coast, and that trend continues today. The storm could bring 4 to 6 inches (10-15 cm) of rain near Corpus Christi by Sunday night, the Coast Guard said.

Whether this system strengthens into a tropical depression, storm, or stronger, remains to be seen, but we're getting a clearer picture on its potential impact for the Brazos Valley.

A year ago, Hurricane Harvey swamped the Gulf Coast with more than 50 inches (1.3 m) or rain in some locations, shutting a quarter of USA refining capacity, leading to regional fuel shortages and pushing prices higher nationwide.

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