Published: Fri, October 12, 2018
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Rasmussen Poll: GOP Pulls Even With Dems on Generic Ballot

Rasmussen Poll: GOP Pulls Even With Dems on Generic Ballot

Republicans have seen a bump in polling since Kavanaugh' confirmation.

With less than a month to go before Election Day, Republicans are closing the gap with Democrats - especially after the Kavanaugh debacle.

But how important is the Kavanaugh vote in that? An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released before the Kavanaugh vote last week concluded that Democrats' enthusiasm advantage had "disappeared" with the confirmation battle and that "the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base".

All 98 seats in the House are up for election November 6, and voters will decide 25 of the Senate's 49 seats.

One: Even before the assault nominations broke, Kavanaugh was unusually unpopular for a Supreme Court nominee, with opinions divided along starkly partisan lines. That 7-point edge is just half of the 52-38 margin in the September 12 survey by Quinnipiac.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), the head of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has a different perspective on the issue.

"It's not about me right now, it's about individual races", he said.

Republicans have pulled even with Democrats in the generic congressional midterms poll for just the second time since weekly tracking started by Rasmussen Reports in May.

In remarks Thursday, McConnell described last week's anti-Kavanaugh protesters as "literally storming the steps of the Capitol and the Supreme Court", confronting Republicans at restaurants and airports and shouting from visitors' galleries during Senate debates. "But this is the first time in Gallup's trend since 1994 that both parties have expressed high enthusiasm".

Seventeen of the races on the ballot are for open seats with no incumbent: 14 in the House and three in the Senate. "But, boy, looking back, assessing what went on during the Kavanaugh hearings, there is no doubt - as somebody that studies branding - there is no doubt that at least for Senate candidates, that the Kavanaugh hearings were a disaster the for the Democratic Party".

In the week since, however, several polls have also suggested that Democrats' failure to halt Kavanaugh's confirmation may have fired up the progressive base.

"I'd be foolish and dishonest if I didn't say this is a year where we've got more obstacles", he said.

At Monday's East Room ceremony, Trump again invoked the rhetoric Republicans are using to frame the whole episode: Kavanaugh, Trump said, had been "proven innocent", even though critics say the investigation was not thorough enough to merit that conclusion.

So far, he looks absolutely spot on.

Far more Democrats say they are focused on health care and Social Security than say the Kavanaugh confirmation will be very important, and for almost three-quarters of partisans, the party of the Congressional candidate matters a lot. Ted Cruz in Texas over Democrat Beto O'Rourke and how Republicans keep enthusiasm up through election day. "In just four weeks, you will have the chance to render your verdict on the Democrats' outrageous conduct".

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