Published: Fri, October 19, 2018
Science | By

NOAA releases 2018-19 Winter Outlook

NOAA releases 2018-19 Winter Outlook

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States is in for a fairly mild winter. Portland averages 13 inches, 19 inches and 12 inches of snow in the three months in question, while Bangor averages 14 inches, 19 inches and 15 inches, respectively. "The last cold winter that the country saw was back in 2013-14, and I'd expect MI to probably follow that pattern".

Above-average rainfall is most likely northern Florida and southern Georgia this winter.

Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing.

No place in the United States is expected to be colder than normal, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the government's Climate Prediction Center. "During the winter, typical El Niño conditions in the USA can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North", according to NOAA.

There's a lot more than just an El Nino pattern that determines how winter will play out.

As for that other big winter factor - snow - Halpert says the weather service has no prediction for Maine.

It also said that wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the southern part of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

Elsewhere in the country, the Pacific Northwest has a much greater likelihood of warmer temperatures this winter.


Kentucky has equal chances for both above and below average temperatures according to NOAA's outlook.

Map showing the NOAA winter outlook for the months of December, January and February for the U.S.

-Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

-Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

Drought conditions may worsen in much of Southern and Central California, although the north coast of California may see some relief, according to NOAA.

Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.

If the snowfall earlier this week reminded you how much you don't like the winter cold, you may be in luck.

Farmer's Almanac Editor Peter Geiger said in late August his publication predicts "a very long, cold and snow-filled winter".

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