Published: Sat, October 20, 2018
Science | By

NOAA’s winter forecast for JH looks warm and dry

NOAA’s winter forecast for JH looks warm and dry

The northwestern United States, including parts of Northern California near the OR border, is likely to see the highest chances of warmer temperatures. Meteorologists predict there's a 75 percent chance it'll be around this winter.

Above-average temperatures are likely across most northern and western states from December through February, according to the 2018-2019 Winter Outlook released by the agency's Climate Prediction Center on Thursday.

Center Deputy Director Mike Halpert said in a statement a "weak El Nino" could bring "warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North".

The Southeast, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic can go any which way on temperature, Halpert said.

No place in the U.S.is expected to experience cooler-than-average temperatures, according to NOAA.

"NOAA's seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are expected to change, but the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations", reads a disclaimer from the forecasters. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation during the winter, the NOAA said.

Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest.


The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center posts its three-month outlook once a month.

Keep your eyes peeled for the next NOAA update on November 15. "Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur", NOAA said.

The winter, it said, will be "colder-than-normal... from the Continental Divide east through the Appalachians". It added: "So just how cold will it be?"

Along with Michigan, Halper said northern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin are expected to be drier than normal, along with parts of Idaho, Hawaii and Montana, too.

The NOAA outlook covers the months of December, January and February, when the average high temperatures in Portland are 37 degrees, 31 degrees and 35 degrees, respectively.

This video below explains El Nino further and provides greater details about NOAA's winter outlook.

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