Published: Thu, September 12, 2019
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Disturbance in Atlantic means more rain for your weekend

Disturbance in Atlantic means more rain for your weekend

Florida can expect increased rain chances at 60% for Friday and 70% for Saturday and Sunday. Odds for a shower or storm will stay low, near 10% Thursday, 20% Friday and 30% over the weekend. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.

It has a 20 percent chance of development over the next five days.

For the system nearest to the United States the see a 0% chance of formation into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, rising to 30% over the next 5 days.

Damage is seen in the wake of Hurricane Dorian in Marsh Harbour Great Abaco Bahamas
Damage is seen in the wake of Hurricane Dorian in Marsh Harbour Great Abaco Bahamas

A broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave is located about 800 miles east of the lesser Antilles. But the storm system's track could change those estimates.

A further tropical wave, just off of Africa, is not organized now, but conditions will be favorable for it to develop and intensify as it moves west across the warm Atlantic. Both the GFS and the EURO have been hinting at a slight potential for a tropical system to develop over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, but the operational models and ensemble models are having a tough time with it.

The National Hurricane Center reports that the system has a 50-percent chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 5 days and 10-percent chance of development over the next 48 hours. The rest of the week looks the same: plenty of heat with little to no rain. This is the heart of hurricane season so it is normal to see increasing tropical activity and you should keep a close eye on the latest updates.


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