Published: Wed, January 13, 2021
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Ontario's new COVID modelling shows LTC deaths could top first wave

Ontario's new COVID modelling shows LTC deaths could top first wave

A nurse guides people being tested for COVID-19 outside a hospital in Toronto, on December 10, 2020.

"This situation continues to burden local health-care resources, particularly in areas where infection rates are highest", she wrote.

"These are choices that no doctor ever wants to make, and no family ever wants to hear", Brown said.

The government has also declared a second state of emergency for the next 28 days.

Under the current lockdown measures, which were imposed on December 26, Brown said mobility and contacts between people "have not decreased". 7, is believed at least 56 per cent, and possibly up to 74 per cent, more contagious than the current dominant strain.

Toronto Mayor John Tory said he was in favour of Ontario's stricter measures, pointing to the "dire" case projections. "Ontario is exploring all options available to put a temporary residential evictions moratorium in place, and will have more to say in the coming days".

Since the implementation of the province-wide shutdown over two weeks ago, the latest modelling trends in key public health indicators have continued to worsen. This would far surpass the deaths seen in the first wave of the pandemic. There will also be further measures taken at schools which include masking required for Grades 1 to 3 and requirements to wear masks outdoors, enhanced screening and an increase in testing.

Forty per cent of Ontario's long-term care homes are experiencing outbreaks right now and one in 10 of the new cases reported in the province Tuesday occurred in long-term care.


Of the 2,903 cases reported on Tuesday, health officials said that 837 were in Toronto, 545 were in Peel Region and 249 were in York Region. "Over 44,800 tests were completed yesterday", Health Minister Christine Elliott said on Twitter.

When asked if the three new Ontario cases were connected to the Durham couple, a spokesperson for Durham Region's health department said she couldn't comment because the investigation is still active.

There has been a big jump in hospitalizations in the past 24 hours.

Paying close attention to the border to prevent more travel-related cases of the variant, and restricting travel within and between provinces to reduce viral transmission, Dhalla said. Of those ICU patients, 262 are breathing with the help of a ventilator. But another 41 people had died in the province since Monday and 138 more were admitted to hospital because of COVID-19. It's in our long-term care homes, and it's in our workplaces.

Durham has also seen 249 deaths, 202 of which were seniors in long-term care and retirement homes.

Manitoba was a limited bright spot on the day, reporting fewer than 100 new cases provincewide for the first time since October.

A more contagious virus will mean doubling down to bring the reproductive number - the average number of people each infected person goes on to infect - below one, Dhalla added.

As of 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday, 133,553 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in Ontario, including 11,448 doses administered in the past 24 hours.

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